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The Drake equation

The Drake equation is a mathematical formula that estimates how many intelligent, communicative civilizations might exist in the Milky Way Galaxy. Created by astronomer Frank Drake in 1961, it multiplies together seven factors: the rate of star formation, the fraction of stars with planets, the number of habitable planets per star, and the fraction of those where life develops, becomes intelligent, develops detectable technology, and persists for a certain time. The equation matters because it provides a framework for scientific thinking about whether humanity is alone in the universe. Rather than giving a definitive answer—since many of its factors remain highly uncertain—the Drake equation serves as a "road map" that identifies what we need to learn to answer one of our most fundamental questions about life elsewhere in the cosmos.

Sources

• en.wikipedia.org: “The Drake equation is a probabilistic argument used to estimate the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy.”
• en.wikipedia.org: “The equation was formulated in 1961 by Frank Drake, not for purposes of quantifying the number of civilizations, but as a way to stimulate scientific dialogue at the first scientific meeting on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI).”
• en.wikipedia.org: “After about 50 years, the Drake equation is still of seminal importance because it is a 'road map' of what we need to learn in order to solve this fundamental existential question.”